The oil market is reaching new highs, closing at its highest point this year. Challenges are arising for US production and refining, while geopolitical tensions are increasing. Reuters reported that Pakistan launched strikes on separatist militants in Iran, and the US conducted new strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles in the Red Sea, adding to the growing risks.
According to Oil Price, Saudi Arabia's 9 million-barrel oil shipment is experiencing delays. Houthi rebels remain active, recently targeting a US-owned chemical ship with anti-ship missiles. Despite this, the Houthis have indicated a willingness to ensure the safe passage of Chinese and Russian ships in the Red Sea.
This development comes as the oil and gas industry is recovering from the Polar Vortex deep freeze, which significantly reduced US refining capacity and halted over half of North Dakota's oil production.
There are indications that oil has broken out of a formation on the daily chart, suggesting a potential major price spike.
Global demand forecasts from OPEC and other organizations point to record global oil demand. The IEA's prediction of oil demand peaking by 2030 has been challenged by OPEC, which projected a higher demand increase for 2024. S&P Global Commodity Insights data shows a decrease in US oil and natural gas rig counts, indicating slower output growth.
The natural gas market has been affected by a bearish injection and hopes for a warmer weather forecast. However, there are expectations of a potential spike if the Polar Vortex returns. According to EIA estimates, total working gas in storage is currently above the five-year historical range.
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