Malaysia's exports took a hit in December 2023, but experts believe they will bounce back in 2024 thanks to a global tech boom. Economists are hopeful that this, along with other positive global factors, will lead to better export performance this year.
December 2023 was tough for Malaysian exports, dropping by 10% compared to the previous year, which was twice as bad as expected. This resulted in a trade surplus of RM11.8 billion, the lowest since May 2020.
Overall, Malaysia's exports in 2023 shrank by 8%, the biggest dip since 2009, reaching RM1.43 trillion. Despite this, it was the third year in a row that exports crossed the RM1 trillion mark.
Imports also suffered in 2023, falling by 6.4% to RM1.212 trillion. Total trade for the year decreased by 7.3% to RM2.64 trillion, reflecting slower global demand, lower commodity prices, uncertainties in geopolitics, high inflation, a slump in the semiconductor sector, and a high comparison base from the previous year.
Nevertheless, MIDF Research is positive about Malaysia's external trade in 2024, citing improvements in electrical and electronic (E&E) exports and better export performances in various regional countries.
RHB Research shares this optimism, expecting exports to pick up in the first half of 2024 due to a stronger global economic outlook and a revival in the global tech industry.
E&E exports in Malaysia and other regional countries are predicted to grow in 2024, supported by increased demand and improved trade in China.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research also predicts a recovery in regional trade in 2024, driven by the global tech upswing and China's stabilizing economy.
Despite these positive forecasts, there are risks to the export recovery, including geopolitical tensions. However, UOB believes that Malaysia's exports will grow moderately by 3.5% this year, slightly below the Ministry of Finance's forecast of 5.1% growth.
In summary, while Malaysia's exports faced challenges in 2023, experts are optimistic about a turnaround in 2024, thanks to global economic improvements and a resurgence in the global tech industry.
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