Technology now accounts for 9% of electricity generating capacity in ASEAN countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
With a solid base of hydropower, the increasing presence of wind and solar power brings the bloc closer to its renewable energy capacity target of 35% by 2025, as outlined by GEM.
The addition of 17GW of utility-scale solar and wind projects over the next two years, capable of directly feeding power into the grid, would be sufficient to meet this goal, the report suggests.
In fact, the region is expected to surpass its target, nearly doubling wind and solar capacity in the next two years with an additional 23GW of new projects.
GEM's analysis reveals a larger pipeline of 220GW of new utility-scale wind and solar capacity, with only 6GW currently under construction.
Despite this progress, ASEAN countries have experienced rapid electricity demand growth of 22% annually from 2015 to 2021, driving continued support for gas and coal power, even as demand growth is projected to slow.
While renewables have the potential to mitigate fossil fuel demand growth, the expansion of wind and solar faces regulatory obstacles and a lack of supportive policies, according to GEM.
Success in the region includes the addition of 3GW of solar capacity in 2023, marking a 17% increase over 2022 levels, and a 29% rise in operational wind capacity, reaching 9GW in total, with 2GW from offshore wind projects.
Vietnam leads the ASEAN nations in utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with significant contributions from both sources.
The increase in utility-scale solar and wind capacity is attributed to supportive policies across many ASEAN countries. For instance, Vietnam implemented investment policies to promote utility-scale solar projects between 2017 and 2020, resulting in the addition of 12GW of capacity. However, the absence of a replacement policy after the expiration of these programs led to a slowdown, with only 1GW of new capacity added in 2022.
Thailand and the Philippines follow Vietnam in utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with 3GW each. Thailand's reputation as a low-risk country has attracted investments, while the Philippines' streamlined project bidding system has facilitated a steady pipeline of project development, with solar accounting for three-quarters of its operational capacity.
Looking ahead, GEM's research identifies a total pipeline of 222GW of announced, pre-construction, and construction-stage utility-scale wind and solar capacity in ASEAN countries, with more than 185GW in the Philippines and Vietnam alone, largely driven by offshore wind development.
The Philippines' Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP) aims to develop over 11GW of renewable energy, with an auction in March 2023 securing bids for 3GW, a significant increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, Vietnam has over 86GW of prospective capacity, including 72GW of offshore wind, with 2% currently under construction due to challenges in renewable energy policies.
Laos has ambitious plans in proportion to its economy, with more than 3GW of prospective capacity rivaling that of Thailand, despite its smaller size. Laos is set to host the region's largest onshore wind farm, the Monsoon wind farm, currently under construction with a planned capacity of 600MW.
GEM believes that ASEAN's target of 35% renewable energy capacity by 2025 is easily achievable, as renewables already make up 32% of electricity capacity in the region. However, continued growth in gas and coal power infrastructure poses challenges, with gas and coal each accounting for approximately 30% of total installed capacity.
Despite these challenges, GEM remains optimistic about the region's renewable energy prospects, with the potential to surpass targets and significantly increase wind and solar capacity in the coming years, reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
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